The Culture Code Predicts an Obama Win

March 2008

As recorders of public opinion, the role of market researchers is at quite a high at present.  The drama of the Obama-Clinton fight, plus the Clark and Key battle in New Zealand, both demonstrate how research polls are quickly seized upon for their prophetic powers (not to mention easy copy).

The accuracy of such polls is a natural discussion point, and is always highlighted by the political losers at any given time – if the poll supports you, support the poll, if not, then attack the poll.  However one key factor for voters and politicians alike to remember when assessing an election survey’s accuracy is the fact that the publicity given to said surveys actually influences how voters act themselves. 

Simply put, people’s likelihood of voting for a given party will be influenced in part by the poll results they have seen in the period preceding election day.  The advent of MMP has undoubtedly increased this effect, as people adopt more tactical voting habits. 

A variety of other factors also come into play, and skilled election surveyors will have means of accounting for these factors.  But all these factors are quantitative in nature.  Few researchers are publicly making calls on who will win most votes because of candidate’s personalities or other qualitative intangibles.  This is odd, because most market researchers will be quick to say that it is their understanding of consumer psychology that adds value to the numbers and justifies their fees.

This was driven home for me recently when reading “The Culture Code”, a 2006 book by New York-based cultural anthropologist Dr Clotaire Rapaille.  Rapaille is essentially a good qualitative researcher who has been able to systemise his approach to focus groups and consumer interviews, producing his insights as single words or phrases (his Codes) that have a conciseness that is undoubtedly highly attractive to CEOs.  For example, he cites the codes for the Jeep Wrangler as being ‘Horse’ in the United States, and ‘Liberator’ in France; and the US code for health as being ‘Movement”. Other examples are the code ‘Hero’ for doctors, and ‘Processing Plant’ for hospitals. For marketers looking for succinct strategic insights these are appealing.

Towards the end of his book Rapaille addresses the code for the American Presidency.  He examines the history of the American electoral system, the most successful Presidents, and even those mediocre Presidents who nonetheless won their elections by taking a certain stance.  That stance, Rapaille concluded, is one of rebellion, where the raw appeal of the charismatic outsider (the reptilian, in Rapaille’s words) overrides the cerebral appeal.  Hence Reagan beat Mondale, Clinton beat Dole, Bush Snr beat Dukakis, Washington beat the British, Roosevelt beat the Depression and so on. Perfect morals and intellectualism aren’t called for, but rebellious leadership and a promise of great things to come will win the voters over.

According to Rapaille’s Culture Code methodology, the code for the American presidency is ‘Moses’, a “rebellious leader of his people with a strong vision and the will to get them out of trouble”. The successful Presidents such as those cited above “inspired us to act by convincing us to share their transcendental vision.  They gave us directions out of the desert and into the Promised Land”.  For readers, the rest of that chapter spells out ‘Obama’ repeatedly, as he seems to be perfectly “on Code”.  Note that Rapaille wrote his work in 2005-06, before the current Clinton-Obama fight, and never cites them specifically. Nonetheless he outlines clearly to the reader why Obama can be expected to win not only the Democratic vote but also the national US election.  If this occurs then it will not only be an affirmation for Rapaille, but also for good qualitative research everywhere.

Jonathan Dodd